Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Red Sox vs Yankees – 8/22/25

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox in what promises to be an exciting American League East showdown on August 22, 2025. Both teams are currently hovering around .500 with records of 69-58 and 69-59, respectively, indicating above-average seasons. In their last meeting, the Yankees fell to the Red Sox by a score of 6-3, a disappointing outcome that the Yankees will be eager to avenge.

Max Fried is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite a rough outing in his last start on August 16, where he allowed 7 earned runs, he ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried has also performed well overall this season, posting a 13-5 record and a commendable ERA of 3.26. He projects to pitch around 6.2 innings today, allowing roughly 2.0 earned runs, which bodes well against a Red Sox offense that ranks 7th in MLB.

On the other side, Brayan Bello will start for the Red Sox. While he has been solid this year with a 9-6 record and an ERA of 3.23, he is considered the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating room for improvement. Bello’s low strikeout rate (18.0 K%) could be a concern against the Yankees, who are known for their power-hitting and have hit the most home runs in MLB this season with 210.

The Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB and are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -190, projecting to score 4.89 runs. Meanwhile, the projections suggest the Red Sox will struggle with a low implied total of 3.61 runs. Given the Yankees’ offensive prowess and Fried’s elite status, this matchup could favor New York considerably, setting the stage for an important series win.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #9 HR venue in the league — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Max Fried’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (56.7% compared to 50.9% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Anthony Volpe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 110 games (+11.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.50 Units / 34% ROI)