Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Rangers vs Royals – 8/19/25

Texas Rangers

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Kansas City Royals

On August 19, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Texas Rangers in the second game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Royals holding a record of 64-61 and the Rangers at 62-64. While neither team is in playoff contention, they will be aiming to improve their standings as the season progresses.

In their previous matchup, the Royals managed to secure a narrow victory, which could give them a psychological edge heading into this game. Seth Lugo is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, boasting an ERA of 3.77 this season, which is decent but suggests he may have benefited from some good luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.41. Lugo has started 23 games this year with a Win/Loss record of 8-6.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Merrill Kelly, who has been performing well with a 3.36 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 9-7 over 25 starts. Kelly is ranked as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB, while Lugo sits further down at 143rd. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Rangers in terms of starting pitching.

While the Royals’ offense ranks a disappointing 24th in MLB, they do have some speed on the bases, ranking 10th in stolen bases. However, their lack of power is concerning, as they sit 28th in home runs. The Rangers’ offense, on the contrary, is similarly struggling, ranking 27th overall and in batting average, but they do show some pop, sitting 19th in home runs.

With both teams striving for improvement, this matchup could be a pivotal moment in their seasons. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a close contest. Betting markets have set both teams at -110 on the moneyline, suggesting a tightly contested game ahead.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Merrill Kelly’s cutter percentage has fallen by 5% from last year to this one (25.2% to 20.2%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alejandro Osuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.336) provides evidence that Alejandro Osuna has experienced some negative variance this year with his .237 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 92.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 114 games (+24.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 112 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 46% ROI)