Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Marlins vs Pirates – 9/11/24

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on September 11, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging season, holding a 69-76 record. Both teams are coming off a matchup yesterday where the Pirates secured a 6-4 victory, continuing the Marlins’ struggles this season, marked by a dismal 54-91 record. With the teams ranked 27th and 29th in offensive performance, respectively, this game is crucial for the Pirates, who are looking to capitalize on their recent win.

Bailey Falter, projected to start for Pittsburgh, has been an average performer with a 4.45 ERA this season, although his 5.07 xERA suggests he might be due for some regression. He faces a Marlins offense that has struggled with power, ranking 4th least in MLB with just 133 home runs this year. Given that Falter is a high-flyball pitcher, this may play in his favor as the Marlins have had difficulty converting flyballs into home runs.

On the opposing side, Jonathan Bermudez takes the mound for Miami, yet he has only made two appearances this season. With a troubling 5.79 ERA, he’s projected to allow 2.7 earned runs and pitch only four innings on average, which doesn’t inspire confidence. The projections favor the Pirates with a projected run total of 5.26, indicating a potentially productive night for their struggling offense.

The leading MLB projection system has granted the Pirates a strong chance to win, suggesting that their recent performance may be a turning point in what has otherwise been a disappointing campaign. As both teams look to find their footing, this matchup could prove pivotal for Pittsburgh in their quest to end the season on a stronger note.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Jonathan Bermudez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jonathan Bermudez to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bailey Falter in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Pittsburgh Pirates will tally 5.4 runs on average in this game: the 3rd-most of all teams in action today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 116 games (+13.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)