Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Nationals - 5/5/25

-110O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-110

Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team in action today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Nolan Jones has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brad Lord – Over/Under Pitching Outs
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bradley Lord is projected to throw 78 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Batters such as Josh Bell with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ben Lively who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Tena, James Wood, Riley Adams).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 36% ROI)

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