Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Guardians – 05/07/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the San Francisco Giants at Progressive Field on July 5, 2024, both teams are coming off wins, but their seasons have been quite different. The Guardians, with a strong record of 54-31, are having a fantastic season, while the Giants are hovering around the .500 mark at 43-45, indicating a more average year.

Tanner Bibee, the Guardians’ right-handed starter, is having an excellent season, boasting a 7-2 Win/Loss record and a solid 3.47 ERA over 17 starts. Ranked as the #25 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bibee has been a significant asset for Cleveland. In his last outing on June 29, he pitched well, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 4 hits, and no walks. Bibee is projected to pitch 5.6 innings today and allow 2.3 earned runs, while striking out 6.0 batters.

On the other side, the Giants will start left-hander Erik Miller, who has transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation this year. Miller holds a 3.69 ERA and a 2-2 Win/Loss record. Despite his 3.00 xERA suggesting he’s been unlucky, his 4.44 FIP indicates some good fortune this season as well. Miller’s high strikeout rate of 27.9% faces a Guardians lineup that ranks #4 in least strikeouts in MLB, potentially diminishing his effectiveness.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 12th in MLB, with standout performances from Jose Ramirez, who has accumulated 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, and a .273 batting average. The team also ranks in the top 10 in home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is slightly behind, ranking 13th overall, with their best hitter Matt Chapman showing strong form recently, hitting .375 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs over the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are favored with a 60% win probability compared to the Giants’ 40%. Given Cleveland’s strong season and Bibee’s impressive performance, the Guardians are also a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -180, translating to an implied win probability of 62%.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Brett Wisely – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brett Wisely has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 83.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Erik Miller – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-185)
  Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  San Francisco’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Daniel Schneemann, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 70 games (+15.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Gabriel Arias has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+12.10 Units / 242% ROI)