Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Dodgers – 9/18/25

San Francisco Giants

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on September 18, 2025, this National League West matchup holds significant implications with the Dodgers sitting at 85-67, while the Giants are at an even 76-76. The Dodgers have established themselves as a powerhouse, currently boasting the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive 225 home runs this season.

Pitching for the Dodgers will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a solid 11-8 record and excellent 2.66 ERA this season, projections suggest he may not maintain such stellar performances going forward, especially with an average projection of 2.1 earned runs allowed today. However, his ability to strike out 7.4 batters per game could stymie the Giants’ lackluster offense, which ranks just 21st in MLB.

On the other side, Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants. He has had a commendable year with a 14-10 record and a solid 3.34 ERA, but his xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and may see improvement moving forward. Webb’s ability to limit walks (5.5 BB%) will be crucial against a patient Dodgers lineup that has drawn the 2nd most walks in MLB.

Interestingly, the Dodgers’ offense ranks 5th in batting average, while the Giants’ ranks a disappointing 26th. With advanced projections favoring the Dodgers significantly, bettors may find value in backing Los Angeles, especially with a current moneyline of -160. As the Dodgers look to maintain momentum against the rival Giants, today’s matchup promises intrigue with elite pitching on both sides and a potent Los Angeles offense ready to capitalize on any mistakes.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2119 rpm is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jung Hoo Lee has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 75.7-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #1 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-170)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 47% ROI)