Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Cardinals vs Reds – 8/13/24

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Cincinnati Reds

On August 13, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are currently in the middle of the pack, with the Reds sitting at 58-61 and the Cardinals at 60-59. This matchup in the National League Central is crucial as both teams vie for a spark to propel them up the standings.

In their last outing, the Reds looked to have turned a corner with a strong performance, leveraging their speed on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have struggled offensively, ranking 22nd in home runs this season. Cincinnati’s offense, while average overall, boasts an impressive 1st ranking in stolen bases, a potential asset against a Cardinals pitching staff that has been solid but not overpowering.

The Reds are projected to start Hunter Greene, who has had an excellent season with a 2.90 ERA and a respectable 8-4 record. Greene ranks as the 52nd best starting pitcher according to advance stats, indicating he is performing well. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests he may have had a bit of good fortune this season. Greene is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings and could strike out approximately 6.2 batters while allowing 3.0 earned runs.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who holds a solid 3.28 ERA and an 8-5 record, ranking 69th among MLB starters. Fedde is projected to allow about 3.0 earned runs while striking out 5.1 batters in his 5.3 innings of work.

Given the Reds’ potential for offensive fireworks, particularly with Spencer Steer heating up, and a projected high team total of 4.50 runs, this game could tilt in Cincinnati’s favor despite the tight odds. As both teams look to make a statement, fans can expect a closely contested battle at Great American Ball Park.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Erick Fedde’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (70% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.7-mph figure last year has lowered to 87.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Collectively, St. Louis Cardinals bats have done well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 3rd-best in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Hunter Greene’s 97-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.8) provides evidence that Santiago Espinal has experienced some positive variance this year with his 19.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 100 games (+10.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140/+110)
  Hunter Greene has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)