Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs Phillies – 6/13/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 13, 2025, both teams are riding the momentum of recent victories. The Phillies, with a record of 39-29, won their last game against the New York Mets on June 11 by a score of 7-2. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, at 38-30, also secured a win in their previous outing, besting the Chicago White Sox 5-2.

In this Interleague matchup, the Phillies will send left-hander Ranger Suarez to the mound, while the Blue Jays counter with righty Kevin Gausman. Suarez has been a standout performer this season, boasting a 4-1 record and a remarkable ERA of 2.70, ranking him as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His last start on June 7 was impressive, as he pitched seven innings, allowing just two earned runs along with five strikeouts. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today, with expected averages showing 2.7 earned runs and a concerning 6.1 hits allowed.

Gausman, on the other hand, holds an average ERA of 3.87 and a 5-4 record. Though he is considered an average pitcher in terms of current performance, he has shown the ability to deliver solid outings, with his latest showing being six innings pitched, three earned runs, and five strikeouts.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 8th in MLB with a strong batting average of .263, while the Blue Jays sit just behind at 10th with a .266 average. Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the game total set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. The Phillies’ current moneyline is set at -115, highlighting their status as slight favorites in this closely matched series opener.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Kevin Gausman has utilized his sinker 5.3% less often this season (0.1%) than he did last season (5.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Philadelphia’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all starters, Ranger Suarez’s fastball spin rate of 1927 rpm grades out in the 3rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 51 games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 115% ROI)