Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-175
As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 2, 2024, the stakes are significant in this American League East matchup. The Yankees currently boast a strong 65-45 record, placing them squarely in contention for a playoff spot, while the Blue Jays sit at 50-59, struggling to find their footing this season. The Yankees are also coming off a thrilling 6-5 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in their last game on July 31.
On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has had an inconsistent year with a 3.64 ERA and a below-average ranking of 137th among MLB starters. Interestingly, Stroman is a low-strikeout pitcher, which could play into the hands of a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th lowest in the league for strikeouts. However, he is a high-groundball pitcher, which may mitigate the threat posed by the Blue Jays’ lack of power, as they rank 27th in home runs this season.
Kevin Gausman, the projected starter for the Blue Jays, has shown more promise with a 4.44 ERA and ranks 70th among MLB starters. He recently pitched a remarkable complete game against the Orioles, allowing just three earned runs while striking out eight batters. Gausman’s good control, reflected in a low walk rate, could be crucial against a Yankees lineup that leads the league in walks.
With the leading MLB projection system indicating a high projected win probability for the Yankees, they are favored with a moneyline of -160. The projections suggest that the Yankees are likely to score around 5.55 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected for about 4.40 runs. This matchup presents a compelling narrative as the Yankees aim to capitalize on both their powerful offense and the pitching struggles of the Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)In his last start, Kevin Gausman was firing on all cylinders and put up 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, notching a .467 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .424 — a .043 discrepancy.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-175)The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games (+19.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 56% ROI)