Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Yankees vs Rangers – Tuesday September 03, 2024

New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers

On September 3, 2024, the Texas Rangers host the New York Yankees at Globe Life Field for the second game of their series after a tough 8-4 loss for Texas the previous day. The Yankees, boasting a solid 80-58 record, are currently enjoying a great season and rank as the 1st best offense in the league. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit at 65-73, struggling to find consistency throughout the year.

Starting for the Rangers, Andrew Heaney has had a challenging season with just a 4-13 record and an xERA of 3.95, indicating he has performed decently despite the overall results. In his last appearance on August 21, Heaney pitched well, going five innings with no earned runs and striking out eight batters. However, his projections for this matchup are less than favorable; he is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 4.5 hits, which may spell trouble against a potent Yankees lineup that has blasted 149 home runs this year.

Carlos Rodon, taking the mound for the Yankees, comes off a rough start where he allowed five earned runs in six innings. However, with a 14-9 record and a solid performance overall this season, he ranks as the 88th best starting pitcher, making him a reliable option against a below-average Rangers offense that ranks 23rd in the league.

With the projections favoring the Yankees to score 5.16 runs compared to the Rangers’ 4.26 runs, it seems the Yankees’ powerful offense will likely capitalize on Heaney’s vulnerabilities, making them the team to watch for this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all SPs, Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Giancarlo Stanton has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season’s 95.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Heaney to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+16.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 86 games (+20.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)