Find the Best Player Prop Bets for White Sox vs Mets – Monday May 26, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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New York Mets

On May 26, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field in what marks the first game of this interleague matchup. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 32-21, while the White Sox are struggling at 17-36. Given the disparity in performance, the Mets are substantial betting favorites, indicated by an implied win probability of 72% and a moneyline of -295.

In their last game, the Mets’ best hitter showcased his form, contributing significantly with seven hits over the past week at a .350 batting average, bolstering confidence in their lineup. The White Sox, conversely, have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th, and have only managed 44 home runs this season, showcasing their lack of power.

The pitching matchup favors the Mets as well. Clay Holmes is expected to start for New York, sporting an impressive ERA of 3.13 and a solid Win/Loss record of 5-3 over 10 starts this year. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings while allowing just 1.9 earned runs, although he does have a concerning projection of 4.6 hits allowed. In contrast, Adrian Houser will take the mound for Chicago. Despite an extraordinary ERA of 0.00, he has only made one start this season and is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs, along with 4.9 hits and a troubling strikeout projection of 3.3.

While the Mets’ bullpen is ranked 28th, and the White Sox aren’t much better at 29th, the disparity in offensive and pitching effectiveness creates a significant edge for the Mets. With their solid offense and Holmes on the mound, expect New York to assert dominance in this opening game of the series.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+195)
  Adrian Houser performed well in his last start and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Joshua Palacios will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball batters, Clay Holmes and his 56.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup matching up with 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Juan Soto are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-275)
  The New York Mets projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+195)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 27 games (+6.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)