Find the Best Player Prop Bets for White Sox vs Angels – 9/18/24

Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels

With the season drawing to a close, two struggling teams, the Los Angeles Angels and the Chicago White Sox, will face off on September 18, 2024, at Angel Stadium. Both teams have endured disappointing campaigns, with the Angels standing at a 61-90 record and the White Sox even worse at 36-116. Neither team is in playoff contention, making this matchup more about pride than postseason implications. The Angels are coming off a 5-0 shutout win against the White Sox on September 17, showcasing a rare dominant performance in an otherwise bleak season.

Jack Kochanowicz will take the mound for the Angels, bringing with him a 2-5 record and a 5.08 ERA. Despite being one of the lower-ranked starters in MLB, Kochanowicz has shown he can limit walks, putting him at an advantage against the White Sox lineup that ranks 2nd in the bottom half for drawing walks. However, his groundball tendencies may not bother the power-starved White Sox, who rank last in home runs.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Jared Shuster, who holds a 1-4 record and a 4.54 ERA. Despite a deceptive ERA, his xERA suggests that regression could be looming. Shuster’s potential for a quick hook means Chicago will likely lean on their bullpen—the worst-ranked in MLB—more than they’d prefer.

The Angels have an implied win probability of 56%, whereas the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them a slightly lower 54%. This game is projected to be tight, as both offenses rank near the bottom in MLB in multiple categories, with the Angels slightly ahead in home runs and stolen bases. Betting lines favor Los Angeles, but given the inconsistencies and poor performances on both sides, this game could tilt either way.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jared Shuster – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-205/+155)
  Jared Shuster’s 91-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 20th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Brandon Drury is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Matt Thaiss has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 30 away games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+115)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)