Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Tigers vs Cardinals – 5/21/25

Detroit Tigers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on May 21, 2025, both teams are looking to assert dominance in this interleague matchup. The Cardinals currently sit at 27-22, enjoying a solid season, while the Tigers boast an impressive 32-17 record, showcasing their strength this year. In their last encounter on May 20, the Cardinals fell to the Tigers by a narrow 5-4 margin, adding urgency to this matchup as they seek redemption.

Projected starters Andre Pallante and Brant Hurter present an intriguing contrast. Pallante, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 101st best starter in MLB, which indicates he is performing at an average level. His recent outing on May 16 saw him pitch 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as indicated by his 4.77 FIP. Pallante’s ability to limit earned runs will be crucial against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, Brant Hurter, a left-handed pitcher, is faring better this season, sitting at 81st in the rankings with an excellent 2.35 ERA. Despite his strong performance, projections indicate he may struggle with longevity, averaging only 3.0 innings pitched per game. This could be a pivotal factor as the Cardinals boast the 7th best offense in MLB, particularly with their ability to hit for average, ranking 2nd in team batting average.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, betting markets suggest a competitive clash, and the Cardinals are slightly favored with a moneyline of -115. Given their strong offensive capabilities, particularly at home, the Cardinals may very well outpace their implied total of 4.55 runs, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Brant Hurter – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Brant Hurter’s high usage rate of his fastball (62.5% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Riley Greene has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 100.6-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Detroit Tigers in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .316, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .327 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Andre Pallante’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (93.4 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brant Hurter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)