Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Rays vs Rangers – 4/5/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Texas Rangers

On April 5, 2025, the Texas Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays in a pivotal matchup at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, boasting a strong 6-2 record this season, are enjoying a solid start. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 4-3, also having a good season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Rangers came out on top, continuing to build their momentum as they aim to solidify their position in the standings.

The Rangers are set to start ace Jacob deGrom, who has been remarkable this season. His ERA stands at a flawless 0.00, though his 3.54 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of performance moving forward. DeGrom’s high strikeout rate (30.0 K%) could be tested against a Rays offense that ranks among the league’s lowest in strikeouts, which may present an opportunity for Tampa Bay to level the playing field.

On the other side, rookie Taj Bradley is projected to take the mound for the Rays. His 3.00 ERA is impressive, but with a xFIP of 1.73 points below, there are signs of better performance on the horizon. While he has shown the ability to keep hitters off balance, the Rangers’ offense, currently ranked 47th in MLB, has struggled to capitalize consistently.

Interestingly, the game total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested battle. Given the projections that favor the Rangers’ overall talent, especially with their elite bullpen ranking 27th against the Rays’ strong bullpen at 7th, Texas appears to have the upper hand. The current moneyline suggests the Rangers are favored, and with their solid recent performances, they look to secure another victory in this critical series.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Taj Bradley is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Yandy Diaz’s speed has decreased this year. His 25.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.29 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  When estimating his strikeout ability, Jacob deGrom projects as the 2nd-best SP in MLB currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Typically, hitters like Kyle Higashioka who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In today’s game, Josh Smith is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (87th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+20.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)