Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Yankees – 9/28/24

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees

As the Yankees and Pirates prepare for their second showdown of the series on September 28, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, there’s a lot at stake for the home team. The Yankees, with a strong 93-67 record, are battling for playoff positioning, while the Pirates’ 75-85 record reflects a season that has not gone as hoped. In their last encounter on September 27, the Pirates surprised everyone by defeating the Yankees 4-2, with Pittsburgh looking to build on that momentum.

The Yankees are sending Luis Gil to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 15-6 record and a 3.27 ERA. However, his luck might be running thin, as indicated by his 4.32 xFIP. Gil will face a Pirates lineup that has struggled offensively, ranking 28th in MLB. Nevertheless, Gil’s high-strikeout approach could exploit Pittsburgh’s propensity to whiff, as they rank 4th most in strikeouts.

On the Pirates’ side, the elite Paul Skenes will start, boasting an impressive 1.99 ERA and standing as the top-ranked pitcher in MLB. While his xFIP of 2.56 suggests some luck, Skenes’s control and groundball tendencies might neutralize the Yankees’ powerful bats, which have launched them to the top spot in home runs this year. The Yankees’ patience at the plate could be tested by Skenes’s low walk rate.

This game is not only a battle of arms but also a clash of contrasting offenses. The Yankees have the 3rd best offense, while the Pirates linger near the bottom. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, New York holds a slight edge with a 56% projected win probability, slightly higher than their betting implied probability. The Yankees will look to bounce back and leverage their offensive power to secure a crucial victory.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2148 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2243 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Billy Cook – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Billy Cook, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively grade out 8th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 30.2% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Luis Gil has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jasson Dominguez pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)