Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs White Sox – Friday July 12, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 12, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. This interleague matchup marks the first game of the series between these two struggling clubs. Despite their poor records, there are intriguing storylines to follow, especially around the starting pitchers.

For the White Sox, Garrett Crochet takes the mound. Despite the team’s dismal 27-68 record, Crochet has been a bright spot. Boasting an impressive 3.08 ERA and a 34.8 K% this season, he ranks 3rd among all starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The left-hander has been slightly unlucky this year, as indicated by his 2.47 xFIP, suggesting he could perform even better. Crochet is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing just 1.8 earned runs while striking out 7.7 batters. This elite performance might just be the edge the White Sox need.

Across the diamond, the Pirates will counter with Marco Gonzales. The Pirates, sitting at 45-48, have also had their share of struggles, but Gonzales has managed an impressive 2.65 ERA despite limited action with just three starts this year. However, Gonzales’s 4.40 xFIP reveals he’s been fortunate, and the projections are less optimistic about his performance against the White Sox. He’s expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out just 3.7 batters.

Offensively, both teams have their issues. The White Sox rank 29th in MLB in both overall offense and batting average, while the Pirates aren’t much better, ranking 27th in both categories. However, the Pirates hold a slight edge in the power department, ranking 17th in home runs compared to the White Sox’s 26th.

Recent form also favors the Pirates. The White Sox lost their last game 3-2 to the Twins on July 10, while the Pirates edged out the Brewers 1-0. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the White Sox a 60% win probability for this game, which aligns with their current moneyline of -160. The Pirates, at +140, have a 40% implied win probability.

Given Crochet’s elite status and the White Sox’s projected win probability, it seems Chicago has the upper hand. However, with both teams struggling, this game could still hold some surprises.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Marco Gonzales – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all SPs, Marco Gonzales’s fastball velocity of 88.7 mph ranks in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Andrew McCutchen has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 12.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Michael A. Taylor, Jack Suwinski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Garrett Crochet to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 4 IP.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Korey Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Korey Lee has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+13.40 Units / 71% ROI)