Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Padres vs Marlins – Wednesday July 23, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres prepare for their third matchup of the series on July 23, 2025, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Marlins, sitting at 48-53, are struggling this season, while the Padres, with a record of 55-47, are performing above average. In their last game on July 22, the Marlins edged out the Padres with a narrow 4-3 victory, a much-needed win following a rough stretch.

Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. Despite being ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB, Alcantara’s season has been marred by inconsistency, reflected in his 4-9 record and an alarming 7.14 ERA. However, projections suggest he could improve, with a favorable 4.51 xFIP indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky this year. Alcantara’s ability to pitch 6.2 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed is promising, although he struggles with strikeouts, which may hinder him against a Padres lineup that ranks 3rd in the fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Dylan Cease, who is projected as the 22nd best starter, has had a solid season with a 3-9 record and a 4.64 ERA. His last outing was impressive, as he struck out 10 batters over 5 innings, showcasing his potential against a Marlins offense that ranks 20th overall but is 8th in batting average. Cease’s flyball tendency could be an advantage, especially since the Marlins’ power numbers are lacking, sitting 26th in home runs.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Marlins enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +125. Despite their struggles, this matchup presents an opportunity for Miami to build on their recent success, while San Diego looks to bounce back after a tough loss.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Dylan Cease’s 2545-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 96th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Typically, batters like Tyler Wade who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Sandy Alcantara.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Sandy Alcantara has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Kyle Stowers has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11% rate last year to 20.9% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Today, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (86th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+14.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+18.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Sandy Alcantara has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.60 Units / 72% ROI)