Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Padres vs Blue Jays – 5/22/25

San Diego Padres

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 22, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the San Diego Padres in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are coming off a dominant 14-0 victory against the Padres the day before, while the Padres will be looking to bounce back after the same lopsided defeat.

Currently, the Blue Jays sit at .500 with a 24-24 record, putting them in the middle of the pack in the American League. In contrast, the Padres are enjoying a solid season at 27-20, positioning them well in the National League. This game marks the third in a series that has already showcased some unexpected twists.

Bowden Francis is expected to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Although he has struggled this season with a 2-6 record and a 5.63 ERA, projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.63, indicating potential for improvement. However, Francis’s low strikeout rate of 17.9% could be a concern against a Padres offense that has been less prone to strikeouts.

On the other hand, Stephen Kolek will start for the Padres. He has had a strong showing this season with a 2.33 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.43 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. Kolek’s last outing saw him struggle, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings, which raises questions about his current form.

With both teams showcasing average offensive rankings—Toronto at 17th and San Diego at 13th—the game total is set at a modest 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 6th in the league, which could provide a late-game advantage if the score is close. Given the circumstances, the Blue Jays may have a slight edge, especially considering their recent offensive explosion and the Padres’ struggles in their last outing.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Stephen Kolek is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #2 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Luis Arraez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph dropping to 79.9-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bowden Francis’s four-seamer utilization has increased by 6.4% from last season to this one (49.2% to 55.6%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  San Diego’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Daulton Varsho, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)