Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Orioles vs D-Backs – 4/8/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On April 8, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Baltimore Orioles at Chase Field for the second game of their series. Both teams currently sit at 5-6, struggling to find their rhythm early in the season. In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks managed a solid win, which may provide a boost to their confidence as they look to build on that momentum.

Merrill Kelly is projected to start for the Diamondbacks, carrying a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an alarming ERA of 10.00 this season. However, his xFIP of 7.98 suggests that he has faced some unluckiness and may be poised for improvement. Kelly typically pitches around 5.2 innings and is expected to allow 3.2 earned runs, making him a wildcard in this matchup.

On the other side, Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Orioles. With a 0-2 record and an ERA of 9.72, he also faces challenges, although his xFIP of 2.88 indicates he, too, may be better than his surface stats show. Morton’s ability to strike out batters at a high rate (31.7 K%) could be neutralized by the Diamondbacks’ low strikeout rate, giving Arizona a potential edge.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 9th in MLB for team runs, backed by a strong performance from their best hitter, who has recorded 8 hits and 6 runs over the last week. Conversely, the Orioles boast a solid 10th ranking in runs, bolstered by a hitter with a .381 batting average recently.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and both teams looking to break out of their early-season slumps, this matchup promises to be competitive, especially given the Diamondbacks’ implied team total of 4.81 runs. A close game is expected, with both offenses having the potential to capitalize on the opposing pitcher’s struggles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Ranking in the 85th percentile, Charlie Morton has compiled a 27% Strikeout% since the start of last season.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Tyler O’Neill is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Merrill Kelly is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a group rank among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (7th-) when assessing their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 108 games (+29.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 131 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.20 Units / 102% ROI)