Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Braves – 5/12/25

Washington Nationals

@

Atlanta Braves

On May 12, 2025, the Atlanta Braves are set to host the Washington Nationals at Truist Park in a crucial National League East matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Braves sitting at 19-21 and the Nationals at 17-24. Atlanta aims to break out of their below-average performance as they look to gain momentum against their division rivals.

In their last game, the Braves faced a tough outing, but they are projected as a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -170 and an implied team total of 4.75 runs. The Braves’ offense ranks 17th overall in MLB, but they have shown some spark, particularly from their best hitter, who has made an impact with a .545 batting average over the last week. This indicates that they have potential to capitalize on matchups against struggling pitchers like Jake Irvin.

Grant Holmes, projected to start for the Braves, has had an average year so far, with a 4.58 ERA and a below-average ranking of 135th among starting pitchers. However, his 4.00 xFIP suggests he might be due for better outcomes moving forward. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow about 3.0 earned runs, which is typical for a pitcher of his caliber.

On the other hand, Jake Irvin of the Nationals has had a rocky season, ranking among the worst in MLB. His 3.94 ERA is misleading, as his 4.55 xFIP indicates he could face more challenges ahead. With both pitchers struggling, this matchup could yield plenty of scoring opportunities. The Nationals’ offense, averaging 16th in MLB, will need to step up, but their recent performance suggests a tough road ahead against a Braves team eager for a win.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jake Irvin has averaged 18 outs per start this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  This season, James Wood has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.7 mph compared to last year’s 96.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals batters as a unit grade out 23rd- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 7.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Grant Holmes will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Hitters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jake Irvin who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+8.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)