Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Yankees – Friday May 16, 2025

New York Mets

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New York Yankees

On May 16, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the New York Mets in a highly anticipated Interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees holding a record of 25-18 and the Mets at 28-16. The Yankees are currently ranked 1st in MLB for team offense, boasting the highest home run total and a solid batting average that ranks 3rd in the league. Meanwhile, the Mets are 5th in offense and have shown their own prowess, particularly in their recent games.

The Yankees are projected to start Carlos Rodon, who has been above average this season with a 3.29 ERA and a 4-3 record across 9 starts. Rodon’s strikeout capability has been impressive, but he faces a challenge against a Mets offense that is among the least strikeout-prone in the league. This mismatch could play a significant role in the game’s outcome.

On the other side, Tylor Megill is set to take the mound for the Mets. Megill has struggled with control, evident in his high walk rate of 9.7% and an ERA of 3.10. However, he has been effective in limiting earned runs, projecting to allow 2.6 earned runs on average today, which is below average.

The Yankees’ offense is bolstered by a recent surge from their best hitter, who has recorded 12 hits and 3 home runs over the past week. This performance could be crucial as the Yankees look to capitalize on Megill’s weaknesses. With a high implied team total of 4.81 runs, the Yankees are favored to win, making this matchup one to watch as they aim to maintain their strong standing in the league.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tylor Megill’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (94.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball batters like Starling Marte tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 26.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 33 games (+3.72 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)