Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Padres – 7/30/25

New York Mets

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on July 30, 2025, both teams are looking to strengthen their postseason positions in this pivotal matchup. The Padres enter the game with a record of 59-49, while the Mets sit at 62-46, both teams having solid seasons thus far. This game marks the third contest in the series, with the Padres managing a decisive 7-1 victory over the Mets just a day prior.

Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for the Padres. However, he has struggled significantly this season, owning a 0-3 record with an alarming ERA of 9.18, ranking him 150th among starting pitchers. Despite his recent form, projections suggest he may be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. On the other side, Clay Holmes has been a bright spot for the Mets, with a record of 9-5 and a solid 3.40 ERA. Though his numbers also hint at some luck, he has the edge over Darvish in recent performance.

Offensively, the Padres rank 23rd in MLB overall, and 29th in home runs, while the Mets are 11th, showcasing a significant gap in power. The projections favor the Mets to score around 4.15 runs, which they might achieve against a struggling Darvish. With both teams having distinct strengths and weaknesses, this matchup presents a compelling narrative, especially with the Padres’ strong bullpen ranked 6th in MLB, which could keep them competitive in tight scenarios. Overall, this game promises excitement as both teams fight for crucial wins.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Clay Holmes is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #8 HR venue among all stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Despite posting a .247 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyrone Taylor has been unlucky given the .049 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The New York Mets have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 11.1° angle is among the lowest in the majors this year (#30 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Yu Darvish has used his four-seam fastball 10.5% less often this season (8.1%) than he did last season (18.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+16.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.45 Units / 29% ROI)