Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs Giants – 6/24/25

Miami Marlins

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Miami Marlins on June 24, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Giants currently hold a solid 44-34 record, while the Marlins struggle at 31-45. This matchup marks the beginning of a series where the Giants look to extend their successful campaign, especially after a recent victory that showcased their potential.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Justin Verlander, who has had a challenging season with a 0-4 record despite an average ERA of 4.45. Verlander has struggled to find his rhythm, but the projections suggest he has a favorable matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in MLB in home runs, indicating they may struggle to capitalize on his flyball tendencies. Verlander’s ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.5 for this game—could prove crucial.

Cal Quantrill, starting for the Marlins, has been even less effective, holding a 3-7 record with a troubling ERA of 5.68. Although projections suggest he could improve, his performance thus far has left much to be desired. With a projected 4.9 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed, the Marlins will need their offense to step up significantly to support him.

The Giants’ offense, ranked 23rd overall, faces its own challenges, yet they possess potential given their recent performances. Their best hitter is riding a hot streak with a .476 batting average over the last week, contributing significantly to the team’s scoring.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Giants favored at -180, bettors might see value in taking San Francisco to cover, especially considering the Marlins’ struggles and Verlander’s potential to outperform his recent stats.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Cal Quantrill’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (92.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have been the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Casey Schmitt has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year’s 94.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 56% ROI)