Miami Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)-185
The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Miami Marlins for the third game of their series on June 29, 2025. Arizona currently holds a record of 41-41, marking an average season, while Miami struggles with a 36-45 record, reflecting a disappointing year. The D-Backs are coming off a tough loss to the Marlins, falling 8-7 in their previous matchup.
On the mound, Arizona is projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who has shown flashes of potential despite a 5.40 ERA this season. Rodriguez ranks as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is above average. His last outing on June 23 was strong, as he pitched six innings with no earned runs and ten strikeouts. However, he has faced challenges with allowing 5.8 hits and 1.4 walks on average, which could be a concern against a Marlins offense that ranks 17th in MLB.
Cal Quantrill will take the hill for Miami, and he has struggled significantly this season, with a 5.56 ERA and a 3-7 record. His low strikeout rate of 17.5% may not bode well against the D-Backs, who rank 2nd in overall offensive performance. The projections suggest that Rodriguez should be able to exploit the Marlins’ lack of power, as they have hit only 72 home runs this season, the 5th least in MLB.
With Arizona’s potent offense and Rodriguez’s potential to outperform his season metrics, the D-Backs are favored to take this matchup. Betting lines indicate a strong implied team total of 5.10 runs for Arizona, underscoring their expected offensive prowess against a struggling Marlins team.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Cal Quantrill’s cut-fastball rate has increased by 7.3% from last year to this one (13.4% to 20.7%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Eric Wagaman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+160)The worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Miami Marlins.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile among all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Miami (#2-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 71 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+160)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+10.50 Units / 150% ROI)