Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs D-Backs – Sunday June 29, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 29, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Miami Marlins in a pivotal National League matchup at Chase Field. Arizona enters the game with a split record of 41-41, while Miami sits at 36-45. Both teams are looking to improve their seasonal standings, but the Diamondbacks are favored, sporting a high-powered offense ranked 3rd in MLB. Conversely, the Marlins rank 17th overall, highlighting their struggles this season.

In their previous contest, the Diamondbacks showcased offensive prowess with a dominant performance, which is critical as they aim for consistency moving forward. Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start, has had an up-and-down season, holding a 3-4 record with an ERA of 5.40. However, with a 3.85 xFIP, the projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve. Rodriguez’s high flyball percentage could pose problems for a Marlins lineup that has struggled with power, accounting for just 72 home runs this year—ranking 5th least in MLB.

Cal Quantrill, slated to pitch for Miami, has not fared much better, posting a 3-7 record and an abysmal 5.56 ERA. His low strikeout rate of 17.5% could be especially detrimental against a Diamondbacks roster that strikes out less than most, ranking 5th in least strikeouts this season.

With Arizona’s offense firing on all cylinders and Rodriguez looking for a breakout performance, they have a strong edge. The Diamondbacks are projected to score an impressive 5.14 runs based on current odds, while the Marlins’ average projected team total sits at 3.86 runs. This matchup presents a clear opportunity for Arizona to capitalize on their strengths, particularly facing a pitcher like Quantrill.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Cal Quantrill’s cut-fastball rate has increased by 7.3% from last year to this one (13.4% to 20.7%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Eric Wagaman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The 3rd-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 71 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 75% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+10.50 Units / 150% ROI)