Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Giants vs Cubs – Tuesday May 06, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs

On May 6, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field. With both teams sitting at 22-14, this matchup features two of the stronger squads in the National League. Last night, the Cubs took the first game of the series, building momentum as they continue to showcase their powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

The Cubs are projected to start Colin Rea, who has been solid this season, boasting a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.46. However, advanced metrics suggest Rea may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.75 xFIP indicates he could be due for a regression. Rea’s average projection of 5.4 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed suggests he might face challenges against a Giants lineup that, while average overall, has some pop with their 15th ranking in home runs.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Justin Verlander. While Verlander’s 0-2 record and 4.38 ERA may not impress at first glance, his 3.73 xERA indicates he has been a victim of bad luck. Verlander is known for his high fly ball rate (43 FB%), which could spell trouble against the Cubs’ potent lineup that has already hit 54 home runs this year.

Given the Cubs’ offensive prowess and Verlander’s recent struggles, the projections favor the Cubs significantly despite the Giants’ respectable showing. The current Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation for scoring. As the Cubs look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, they hold a moneyline of -145, hinting at confidence in their ability to take the series against a Giants team still searching for its offensive rhythm.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Heliot Ramos is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Placing 6th-steepest in the game this year, San Francisco Giants hitters collectively have notched a 15.4° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Kyle Tucker will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+4.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Ian Happ has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)