San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)-150
On May 6, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will square off against the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field in the second game of their series. The Cubs are riding high after securing a decisive 9-2 victory over the Giants just yesterday, showcasing their powerful offense. With both teams holding identical records of 22-14, this matchup represents an intriguing battle between two squads having great seasons, although the Cubs are currently positioned better in the standings.
The Cubs’ offense ranks an impressive 2nd in MLB and leads the league in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. This potent lineup is complemented by Colin Rea, who is projected to take the mound. Rea has been effective this season, boasting a stellar ERA of 1.46, although his xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. He has shown flashes of brilliance, having pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs.
In contrast, the Giants have struggled offensively, ranking just 16th in MLB and a dismal 24th in team batting average. They will counter with Justin Verlander, the more experienced pitcher, who is having a rough start to the season with a 0-2 record and a 4.38 ERA. However, the projections indicate he may improve, given his xERA of 3.72, suggesting that better days could be ahead.
The Cubs are favored in this matchup, with a strong implied team total of 4.44 runs against a lower 3.56 for the Giants. Given the disparity in offensive prowess and their recent form, the Cubs appear to hold a significant advantage heading into this game.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Heliot Ramos is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Placing 6th-steepest in the game this year, San Francisco Giants hitters collectively have notched a 15.4° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Kyle Tucker will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Chicago Cubs batters as a group place 8th- in the game for power this year when using their 10% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+125)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+4.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)