Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Dodgers vs Mariners – 9/27/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in solid positions as the season winds down. The Mariners, currently 90-70, are battling for a Wild Card spot, while the Dodgers hold a slightly better record at 91-69. This interleague matchup carries significance as the teams vie for momentum heading into the postseason.

In their last encounter, the Dodgers secured a narrow victory against the Mariners, winning 3-2. This close game showcased the pitching strengths of both teams, a theme that could continue today. Mariners’ Logan Gilbert is projected to start, boasting a Power Ranking of 17th among MLB pitchers, and has shown solid form, with a great ERA of 3.43. Gilbert’s last start was particularly impressive, allowing just one earned run over six innings. His ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) could play a pivotal role against a Dodgers offense that walks the second-most in MLB.

On the other side, Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow, ranked 24th, has had a mixed season with a 3.30 ERA but faced challenges in his previous outing, giving up four earned runs in just five innings. While Glasnow has a high strikeout rate (29.2 K%), he may struggle against a Mariners lineup that is striking out at the 6th highest rate in MLB.

With both teams ranking in the top tier for offensive production—Dodgers at 2nd and Mariners at 10th—the matchup promises to be an exciting contest. Despite the Mariners’ lower implied team total of 3.66 runs, their recent performance suggests a potential edge, particularly with Gilbert on the mound. This series is critical for both teams, and fans can expect a closely contested battle as they push towards the end of the regular season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Tyler Glasnow has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Tommy Edman has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 21.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 9.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today (.318 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .331 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (37.7 compared to 32.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Cal Raleigh’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 19.3% up to 38.5%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-135)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 28 games at home (+18.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)