Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-225
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 20, 2025, this matchup carries the weight of a fierce rivalry in the National League West. The Dodgers, currently holding a record of 29-19, are in strong form this season, boasting the top-ranked offense in MLB. However, they are coming off a surprising loss to the Diamondbacks on May 19, where they fell 9-5, marking a rare setback in an otherwise stellar campaign.
The Dodgers will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, an elite right-handed pitcher ranked 5th in MLB according to advanced metrics. Yamamoto’s exceptional 2.12 ERA this season, paired with a 29.7% strikeout rate, creates a daunting challenge for the Diamondbacks, who have struggled to capitalize on high-strikeout opportunities. While Yamamoto may face some difficulty in maximizing his strikeout potential against a D-backs lineup that ranks 4th lowest in strikeouts, his groundball-heavy approach fits well against a team that relies heavily on power, as evidenced by their 67 home runs this season—ranking 3rd overall.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will call upon Ryne Nelson, who has had a mixed season, holding a less-impressive 5.13 ERA and a tendency to allow significant runs. The Dodgers are likely to exploit Nelson’s vulnerabilities, aiming to build on their already high projected team total of 5.37 runs for this game.
With a high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Dodgers stand as favorites with odds reflecting their strength. Given the disparity in offense and pitching quality, look for Los Angeles to rebound strongly in this crucial matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in MLB in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Extreme flyball hitters like Gabriel Moreno usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .328, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .341 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s change-up utilization has increased by 5.1% from last season to this one (24.1% to 29.2%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)In the last week, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers bats collectively grade out 4th- in MLB for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+120)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 32% ROI)