Find the Best Player Prop Bets for D-Backs vs Braves – 6/3/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in a similar predicament, struggling with below-average records. The Braves sit at 27-31, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 28-31. This game marks the first in a series that could be crucial for both teams as they seek to turn their seasons around.

In their last outing, the Braves’ Spencer Strider, who is projected to start, has been searching for his first win of the season, currently holding a 0-3 record despite a respectable ERA of 4.50. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his SIERA of 3.98 indicates he could perform better going forward. Strider’s high flyball rate (43 FB%) could pose a challenge against the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, which ranks 4th in MLB with 80 home runs.

On the other side, Zac Gallen will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Despite a rough season reflected in his 3-7 record and a troubling 5.54 ERA, projections indicate he could also improve. He has been slightly unlucky as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.31, suggesting he may not be as far off as his numbers indicate.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th overall, while the Diamondbacks boast a much more impressive 4th place ranking, showcasing their ability to generate runs. The Braves have the edge in terms of bullpen quality, sitting at 19th in MLB compared to the Diamondbacks’ 21st ranking.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Braves favored at -145, the betting line reflects a belief in Atlanta’s potential to capitalize on their home-field advantage. This matchup promises to be an intriguing clash as both teams vie for a much-needed victory.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Zac Gallen’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (92.5 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be best to expect negative regression for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Spencer Strider is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 games (+9.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)