Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Angels vs Mariners – 9/14/25

Los Angeles Angels

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners face off against the Los Angeles Angels on September 14, 2025, both teams find themselves in different situations. The Mariners (81-68) are enjoying an above-average season, currently sitting in a strong position in the American League West. In contrast, the Angels (69-80) are struggling with a below-average record and have been unable to find consistent success.

In their last encounter, the Mariners secured a 5-3 victory, continuing their momentum as they aim for a playoff push. Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound, who is projected to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs—an elite projection. Kirby has shown flashes of brilliance this season, ranking as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB, even though his ERA of 4.56 suggests some bad luck.

On the other hand, the Angels will counter with Kyle Hendricks, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough year, ranking among the worst in MLB. Hendricks projects to pitch only 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs. His recent performance, which included a solid outing of 7 innings with no earned runs, could be a glimmer of hope, but he faces a daunting Mariners lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for home runs.

The Mariners’ offense has been potent, particularly their ability to hit for power, having launched 215 home runs this season. However, they rank 20th in team batting average, indicating some inconsistency. The Angels, while ranking 5th in home runs, have struggled overall, especially with a batting average that sits at 29th in MLB.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs, Seattle enters as a heavy betting favorite, boasting a moneyline of -220. Given the Mariners’ offensive capabilities and Kirby’s potential to dominate on the mound, this matchup favors Seattle heavily as they look to build on their recent success against a faltering Angels squad.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has relied on his secondary offerings 5.3% less often this year (47%) than he did last season (52.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.0) implies that Taylor Ward has had positive variance on his side this year with his 30.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Christian Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Christian Moore has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  George Kirby’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 88th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Eugenio Suarez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-220)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 41 games at home (+17.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 65 of their last 111 games (+15.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)