San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-140
As the Seattle Mariners host the San Francisco Giants at T-Mobile Park on August 25, 2024, both teams find themselves around the .500 mark with records of 65-65 and 66-65, respectively. Despite their average season, the projections favor the Mariners, who are considered significant betting favorites, showing a potential edge that could be worth exploring for bettors.
In their last game, the Giants faced a challenging matchup and could not capitalize on their opportunities, which may have contributed to their current standing. Meanwhile, the Mariners are looking to build momentum, although they have had a lackluster offense this season, ranking 28th overall in MLB. They rely on players like Leonardo Rivas, who has been the team’s best hitter over the past week, boasting an impressive .450 batting average and a 1.000 OPS.
Bryan Woo, projected to start for the Mariners, has been outstanding this year with a 2.12 ERA, ranking as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to limit walks—at just 2.9%—could serve him well against a Giants team known for drawing walks. However, their offense struggles against high-strikeout pitchers, and Woo’s average of 6.1 strikeouts per game may give him the upper hand.
On the other side, Robbie Ray has had a rocky season with a 4.88 ERA. Despite being projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs, he faces a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts, presenting a classic pitcher-versus-hitter mismatch.
With a total set at just 7.5 runs, the expectations for scoring are low, but given the Mariners’ strong pitching and the Giants’ inconsistent offensive output, the Mariners could find themselves in a favorable position to secure a win, despite their offensive woes.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Bryan Woo’s change-up usage has increased by 5.7% from last season to this one (3.6% to 9.3%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Cal Raleigh’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.8-mph now compared to just 89.6-mph then.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games at home (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)