Find the Best D-Backs vs Royals Picks and Odds – 7/23/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 23, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Royals, with a solid 56-45 record, are having a good season and sit in a favorable position. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, at 51-50, are experiencing an average season.

Yesterday, the Royals dominated the D-Backs with a 10-4 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire, hitting .800 with a 2.290 OPS over the last week. This offensive surge could be pivotal as the Royals look to build on their recent success.

On the mound, the Royals will start Alec Marsh, a right-hander who has been inconsistent this season. Marsh holds a 7-6 record with a 4.52 ERA over 17 starts. Despite his average ERA, advanced stats rank him as the #261 starting pitcher in MLB, indicating struggles. Marsh’s projections for today are not promising, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed.

The D-Backs will counter with lefty Jordan Montgomery, who has had a tough season, sporting a 6.44 ERA. However, his 4.58 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Montgomery’s projections are similarly bleak, with an expected 4.4 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed. His low strikeout rate (15.1 K%) could pose a challenge against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts least in MLB.

Offensively, the Royals rank 13th overall, with a notable 10th in team batting average and 8th in stolen bases. The D-Backs, on the other hand, boast the 9th best offense and rank 9th in batting average. Both teams have average power, with the Royals and D-Backs ranking 17th and 16th in home runs, respectively.

The bullpen battle is fairly even, with the Royals ranked 18th and the D-Backs 15th. Given the close nature of the matchup, the betting markets reflect a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the D-Backs a slight edge with a 52% win probability.

Expect a high-scoring affair, with both teams projected to score over 4.5 runs. The Royals’ recent offensive form and home advantage could be crucial, but the D-Backs’ potential for improved pitching performance makes this a game to watch closely.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jordan Montgomery’s curveball rate has risen by 7.3% from last season to this one (22.2% to 29.5%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Despite posting a .284 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corbin Carroll has had some very poor luck given the .045 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all starters, Alec Marsh’s fastball spin rate of 2512 rpm is in the 93rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+17.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)