Find Phillies vs Mets Value Bets and Betting Line – Saturday September 21st, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

With the final stretch of the regular season upon us, the National League East matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 21, 2024, is critical for both teams as they jostle for playoff positioning. The Phillies, boasting a 92-62 record, are having a stellar season, while the Mets, at 85-69, are also in contention. The Phillies come into this game after routing the Mets 12-2 last night, showcasing their offensive firepower.

The pitching duel features two left-handers: Sean Manaea for the Mets and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Manaea, ranked as the 84th best starting pitcher according to advanced stat Power Rankings, carries an impressive 3.26 ERA into the game, though his 3.99 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate this season. Meanwhile, Suarez, the 47th ranked pitcher, sports a slightly better 3.13 ERA, indicating his reliability on the mound. Both pitchers, however, project to allow a high number of hits and walks, which could be a pivotal factor against two strong offenses.

Offensively, the Phillies are ranked 4th in MLB, showcasing a balanced attack highlighted by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who has been on a tear with three home runs and a 0.984 OPS over the last week. The Mets offense, ranked 7th, features power threats like Francisco Lindor and has been aided recently by Tyrone Taylor’s hot stretch, hitting .438 in his last six games.

The Phillies’ bullpen, ranked 7th in Power Rankings, could give them an edge late in the game over the Mets, whose bullpen ranks 24th. The betting market sees this as an evenly matched contest, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, leans slightly towards the Phillies with a 53% win probability, hinting at a potential edge for this visiting powerhouse.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With a 0.9 discrepancy between Ranger Suarez’s 8.71 K/9 and his 7.81 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should negatively regress in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Weston Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Weston Wilson has been very fortunate given the .080 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .285.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Sean Manaea’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Projected catcher Francisco Alvarez profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 98 games (+18.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games (+18.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 50 games (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)