Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Tigers vs Nationals Match – 7/01/25

Detroit Tigers

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on July 1, 2025, the stakes remain high despite neither team contending for their division titles. The Nationals hold a disappointing record of 35-49, while the Tigers boast a strong 53-32 mark, positioning them among the league’s top contenders.

In their previous game, the Tigers showcased their offensive prowess with a powerful display, securing a victory that highlighted their 5th best ranking in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Nationals are struggling, ranked 20th in offensive production, which raises concerns about their ability to keep pace.

On the mound, Trevor Williams is projected to take the ball for Washington. Williams has started 16 games this season, with a troubling 3-9 record and an ERA of 5.65, placing him among the lower tier of pitchers in MLB rankings. His projections indicate he will struggle to go deep into the game, averaging 5.0 innings pitched while allowing 2.8 earned runs. However, his xFIP suggests he might improve given his bad luck this year.

Opposing him will be Jack Flaherty, who has also started 16 games but carries a much better profile. With a 5-9 record and an ERA of 4.80, Flaherty ranks as the 79th best starter in MLB and brings a high strikeout rate of 28.3%. He is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, although he has his own issues with walks, averaging 1.6 per game.

Given the disparity in their offensive capabilities and Flaherty’s potential to exploit a low-strikeout Nationals lineup, the Tigers appear well-positioned to secure another win in this interleague matchup. With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, bettors should expect a lively contest at Nationals Park.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jack Flaherty (34.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 4 FB hitters in Washington’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under Total Bases
  Zach McKinstry has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Trevor Williams has gone to his four-seam fastball 5.7% more often this year (42.1%) than he did last year (36.4%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Hitters such as Josh Bell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Flaherty who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 84 games (+13.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.85 Units / 31% ROI)