Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Red Sox vs Yankees Match – 9/13/24

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on September 13, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an exciting matchup in the American League East. The Yankees currently hold a strong record of 85-62, sitting comfortably in a playoff position, while the Red Sox are at 74-73, having struggled to find consistency this season. In their last game, the Yankees edged out the Red Sox 2-1, showcasing their solid pitching and clutch hitting.

On the mound, Clarke Schmidt is projected to start for the Yankees. He has had an impressive season with a 5-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.34. Schmidt ranks as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB, and his ability to generate strikeouts (26.1 K%) will be crucial against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts. The projections indicate that Schmidt is likely to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing about 2.3 earned runs, which suggests he will be a significant advantage for the Yankees.

Richard Fitts will take the hill for Boston, having only started one game this year. Despite his impressive 0.00 ERA, his xFIP of 4.60 indicates that he has been fortunate and may struggle against a powerful Yankees offense that leads the league with 215 home runs. The projections anticipate Fitts will pitch only 4.3 innings and allow an average of 3.0 earned runs, which could spell trouble for the Red Sox.

The Yankees offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB and is bolstered by the excellent performance of Aaron Judge, who has hit 51 home runs this season. With a high implied team total of 4.68 runs for this game, the Yankees are favored to win, and their strong form suggests they could continue their winning ways against a Red Sox team that has found it difficult to string together victories.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Tyler O’Neill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Clarke Schmidt is expected to throw 84 pitches today, which is the 15th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Anthony Rizzo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  The Boston Red Sox don’t have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 10.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 offense in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+205/-280)
  Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.25 Units / 44% ROI)