Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs Twins Match – 7/26/25

Washington Nationals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 26, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back. The Twins have been treading water with a record of 50-53 this season, while the Nationals find themselves struggling significantly at 41-62. The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who has been having an excellent season, boasting a 2.63 ERA and a 10-4 record over 19 starts. Ryan’s recent performance has been impressive, and he projects to strike out an average of 6.3 batters today.

In contrast, Mitchell Parker, slated to pitch for the Nationals, has had a tough go this year. With a record of 6-10 and a 5.00 ERA, Parker ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. His projections indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits today, which doesn’t bode well against an average Twins offense that ranks 16th overall this season. The Nationals’ offense, while slightly better in batting average at 18th, ranks poorly in home runs and overall offensive production.

The Twins’ bullpen, ranked 5th best in MLB, adds another layer of strength for Minnesota, while Washington’s bullpen sits at a dismal 25th. With Joe Ryan’s elite status and the favorable conditions at Target Field, the Twins hold a significant advantage. Betting odds reflect this confidence, with a moneyline of -230 favoring Minnesota, suggesting an implied team total of 5.08 runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, are projected at just 3.42 runs.

As these two teams face off, expect the Twins to leverage their pitching and bullpen strength to take control of the game, especially with Ryan’s ability to exploit the Nationals’ offensive weaknesses.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitchell Parker to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (5th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Joe Ryan’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (63.7 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+10.99 Units / 11% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.75 Units / 60% ROI)