Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs D-Backs Match – 5/30/25

Washington Nationals

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 30, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season, with records of 27-29 and 26-30, respectively. The Diamondbacks are coming off a disappointing 10-1 loss against the Nationals just two days prior, while Washington celebrated a solid 9-3 victory in their last outing. This matchup marks the first game in their series, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

Merrill Kelly takes the mound for Arizona, boasting a solid 5-2 record and a respectable 3.52 ERA. Despite a recent uneventful start where he allowed four earned runs over six innings, Kelly is ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average. He projects to pitch around six innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he has struggled with walks and hits allowed, which could be a concern against a Nationals lineup that ranks 17th in offense.

Jake Irvin, on the other hand, is projected to face a tough challenge against the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, which ranks 4th overall in MLB. Irvin has had a decent season with a 4-1 record and a great ERA of 3.42, yet his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for regression. His high flyball rate could spell trouble when facing a team that has already hit 77 home runs this season, ranking 5th in the league.

With the Diamondbacks favored at -215, their implied team total of 5.31 runs reflects confidence in their offensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the projections suggest the Nationals may struggle, with a low implied team total of 3.69 runs. Given the Diamondbacks’ strong hitting and the potential vulnerabilities in Irvin’s game, this matchup could tilt in favor of Arizona as they look to bounce back from their recent defeat.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jake Irvin’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (51.9% vs. 41.7% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Over the last two weeks, Josh Bell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals bats as a group place 22nd- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Merrill Kelly’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (91 mph) below where it was last season (92 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Corbin Carroll’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94-mph now compared to just 89.2-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.2% rate (92nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.12 Units / 16% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)