Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cubs vs Phillies Match – 9/23/24

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to face the Chicago Cubs on September 23, 2024, they find themselves in the midst of an impressive season, boasting a 92-64 record and sitting comfortably with playoff aspirations. The Cubs, with an 80-76 record, find themselves hovering around the postseason bubble, yet not out of the race entirely. Yesterday, the Phillies suffered a tough 2-1 loss against the Mets, while the Cubs enjoyed a commanding 5-0 shutout victory over the Nationals.

Phillies ace Aaron Nola takes the mound at Citizens Bank Park, brandishing a solid 3.54 ERA this season. His prowess was on full display in his last outing, where he pitched seven impressive innings, allowing only one earned run and striking out nine. Despite having a respectable 12-8 record, Nola’s peripheral stats hint at some luck, as his FIP is slightly higher than his ERA. However, he projects to pitch efficiently today, even as he faces a Cubs lineup known for drawing walks, ranking 6th in MLB.

The Cubs counter with Nate Pearson, who steps up from the bullpen. Pearson’s 4.71 ERA doesn’t quite reflect his potential, as his xFIP suggests he’s been a tad unlucky this season. Yet, his projected workload for today is limited, averaging only 1.1 innings. This suggests Chicago might be banking on their bullpen to carry the load, a risky endeavor given their 25th Power Rankings position.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, powered by sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and hot-hitting Nick Castellanos, who has a .333 batting average and .950 OPS in his last seven games. Conversely, the Cubs’ lineup, paced by Ian Happ, sits at a middling 13th ranking. Yet, players like Mike Tauchman offer promise, currently scorching with a .500 batting average over the past week.

The Phillies enter as the heavy favorites, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligning with betting odds, signaling a 63% win probability for Philadelphia. In contrast, the Cubs are evaluated at 37%, making this a challenging matchup for them on the road. Still, with the playoff picture still potentially within reach, Chicago is unlikely to back down easily.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Cody Bellinger has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.5% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)