Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cubs vs Phillies Match – 9/23/24

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on September 23, 2024, playoff implications are at the forefront for the Phillies. With a solid 92-64 record, they are having a great season. Meanwhile, the Cubs, at 80-76, are having an average season and find themselves in a more precarious position as they chase a potential Wild Card spot.

Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies, bringing with him a solid 12-8 record and a 3.54 ERA this season. Ranked as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB, Nola has showcased his ability to limit walks and strike out batters effectively. His projection of 5.6 innings and 6.2 strikeouts today highlights his reliability. However, his 4.04 FIP suggests some luck has been involved, marking a potential area of concern.

The Cubs counter with Nate Pearson, who has primarily come out of the bullpen this season. His 4.71 ERA and 3.77 xFIP indicate he’s been somewhat unlucky, suggesting he might perform better than his stats show. Pearson is expected to pitch only 2.8 innings, which could test the Cubs’ bullpen, currently ranked 26th.

Offensively, the Phillies are a force to be reckoned with, boasting the 4th best lineup in MLB. Their power and ability to hit for average could pose a significant challenge to Pearson and the Cubs’ relief corps. In contrast, the Cubs’ offense ranks 13th, reflecting their average standing in the league.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives Philadelphia a 63% win probability, slightly higher than the implied odds. With Nick Castellanos heating up over the last week, the Phillies have an added edge. As Philadelphia looks to solidify their playoff position, expect them to capitalize on their home field advantage and superior lineup depth.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Nate Pearson – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nate Pearson in the 83rd percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under Hits
  Patrick Wisdom is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.60 Units / 35% ROI)