St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-140
As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 20, 2025, they find themselves riding the momentum of a solid season with a 14-7 record. In contrast, the Cardinals have struggled, sitting at 9-12. This matchup marks the fourth game of the series, and both teams are looking to gain an edge after the Mets took the previous game.
On the mound, the Mets will send Clay Holmes to the hill. Holmes, currently ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has been solid this season with a 2-1 record and a respectable 3.66 ERA. However, his 2.13 FIP suggests he’s been slightly unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 1.8 earned runs, which is elite.
Sonny Gray counters for the Cardinals, boasting a perfect 3-0 record and a stellar 3.13 ERA. Yet, his 3.90 FIP hints at some good fortune, suggesting he may not maintain this level of success moving forward. Gray’s strikeout rate of 27.1% is impressive, but he faces a Mets offense that has the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially neutralizing his effectiveness.
Offensively, the Mets rank 19th in the league, struggling particularly in home runs, where they sit at 22nd. In contrast, the Cardinals boast the 5th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd place ranking in team batting average. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, this matchup presents a unique challenge for both teams.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Sonny Gray’s 2515.1-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 95th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Pedro Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.7-mph figure last year has fallen off to 83.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Clay Holmes – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Clay Holmes is expected to rack up an average of 17.3 outs in today’s outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) provides evidence that Brandon Nimmo has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .221 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-170)Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 87% ROI)