Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Athletics vs Blue Jays Match – 8/10/24

Oakland Athletics

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Oakland Athletics visit the Toronto Blue Jays on August 10, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons, with the Blue Jays sitting at 54-62 and the Athletics at 48-69. The Blue Jays have had a rough stretch, but they managed to secure a win against the Athletics yesterday, taking the game 3-1, which adds a bit of momentum heading into this matchup.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Yariel Rodriguez, who has had a challenging season with a 1-4 record and a 3.77 ERA. However, Rodriguez has shown better recent form and is expected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings while allowing around 2.1 earned runs. His ERA indicates that he has been somewhat fortunate, as his xFIP of 4.35 suggests potential struggles ahead. In contrast, the Athletics will counter with Osvaldo Bido, who has struggled this season, evidenced by a less-than-stellar ERA of 4.64. Bido’s projections show he is likely to pitch around 4.8 innings while giving up approximately 2.6 earned runs. Bido’s xFIP of 5.22 also hints at issues, particularly against a Blue Jays lineup that, despite its below-average power (ranked 27th in home runs), could capitalize on Bido’s high flyball rate.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 18th overall, and they will look to their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to lead the charge. Guerrero has been hot lately, with a remarkable .500 batting average and 1.560 OPS over his last seven games. The projections favor the Blue Jays, suggesting they have a solid chance to come out on top in this encounter, as they are expected to score around 4.58 runs, compared to the Athletics’ projection of 4.19 runs. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, bettors should expect an engaging matchup as both teams vie for crucial victories.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given the 0.9 difference between Osvaldo Bido’s 9.27 K/9 and his 8.38 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Lawrence Butler has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 28.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 20.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Yariel Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate of 2400 rpm grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Ernie Clement is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brian Serven, Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 60 games (+20.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)