Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Astros vs Marlins Match – 8/05/25

Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins face off against the Houston Astros on August 5, 2025, at LoanDepot Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Marlins currently sit with a record of 55-56, a position that reflects an average season, while the Astros boast a better record at 63-50, indicating a solid campaign thus far. In their last outing, the Marlins struggled and lost to the Astros by a score of 8-2, a defeat that highlighted their vulnerability against a strong opponent.

Projected starters for today’s game are Cal Quantrill for the Marlins and Steven Okert for the Astros. Quantrill has had a challenging season, ranking as the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, and he has a Win/Loss record of 4-8 and an ERA of 4.79. However, recent projections suggest he might benefit from some positive regression, as his FIP of 4.18 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this year. He will need to improve his control, given his projections of allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out just 3.3 batters on average.

On the other hand, Okert has been solid out of the bullpen, sporting an impressive 2.90 ERA this season. He projects to allow an average of 0.5 earned runs today, positioning him well against a Marlins offense that ranks 20th overall in the league.

Betting markets currently see this matchup as close, reflected in both teams having a moneyline set at -110. With the game total sitting at 8.5 runs, it’s anticipated that the outcome could hinge on the performance of both pitchers, particularly given Quantrill’s struggles against an above-average Astros offense that ranks 12th in the league. The Marlins will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage if they hope to bounce back after their recent defeat.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cam Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Cam Smith has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.2° figure is among the highest in the game this year (#8 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Steven Okert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+18.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 105 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)