Houston Astros
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)-110
On August 5, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their series. After a tight contest in yesterday’s opener, in which Miami fell short, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Marlins to bounce back. Currently, Miami holds a record of 55-56, while Houston boasts a solid 63-50 mark this season.
Starting for the Marlins is Cal Quantrill, who has struggled this year, posting a 4-8 record with a 4.79 ERA over 21 starts. His advanced stats suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.18 FIP indicates potential for better results. However, he faces a challenging Astros lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in batting average and is adept at making contact, which could expose his low strikeout rate of 3.7 K/9 projected for today.
On the other side, Houston will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has had limited success in his two starts, carrying a 1-1 record and a troubling 5.59 ERA. His projections reveal a slight silver lining, as his 3.84 xERA suggests he could improve, but he too has exhibited issues with walks, projecting to allow 2.3 today.
Offensively, Miami ranks 20th overall, but their batting average is notably higher at 10th. Their power has been lacking, as they sit 25th in home runs. Conversely, Houston’s offensive depth offers a stark contrast, with their ability to consistently pile on runs, highlighted by the recent performance of their best hitters.
Betting markets have set both teams’ moneyline at -110, indicating an anticipated close game, but it’s worth noting that the Marlins may have a stronger chance to outperform expectations given their home-field advantage and Houston’s recent struggles against pitchers who can throw strikes.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Miami Marlins have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Taylor Trammell – Over/Under Total BasesTaylor Trammell has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph dropping to 76.9-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.2° figure is among the highest in the game this year (#8 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)Cal Quantrill’s 2139-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 16th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under Total BasesDespite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Stowers has experienced some positive variance given the .064 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineThe Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.