Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Angels vs Rangers Match – 9/05/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 5, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams, sitting near the bottom of the American League West standings. The Rangers’ record of 67-73 reflects a below-average season, while the Angels have struggled even more with a 58-81 record, marking them as a team in disarray.

In their most recent action, the Rangers managed a favorable win against the Yankees, scoring 10 runs while allowing 6, demonstrating some offensive potential despite their 23rd ranking in overall offense. The Angels, however, come off an impressive 10-1 victory against the Dodgers, but their overall offensive struggles have them ranked 26th in MLB.

On the pitching side, the Rangers will send Cody Bradford to the mound. Bradford has been one of the more consistent arms for Texas, sporting a solid 3.21 ERA and a win-loss record of 4-2 in 9 starts this season. Despite a ranking of 91st in terms of starting pitchers, Bradford’s performance suggests he can keep the Angels at bay. In his last outing, he pitched exceptionally well, going 7 innings with 2 earned runs and 8 strikeouts.

In contrast, the Angels are set to start Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled, posting a 4.96 ERA this year. The projections indicate that he is likely to continue underperforming, which bodes well for the Rangers. While the Rangers’ offense may be ranked lower than desired, the match against a weak Angels bullpen, ranked 28th, provides an opportunity for Texas to capitalize.

With a high implied team total of 4.81 runs, the Rangers are favored to take this first game of the series, and the leading MLB projection system suggests their chances of victory are better than what the odds imply. Given the current state of both teams, all signs point to the Rangers taking advantage of this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  From last season to this one, Kevin Pillar’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 87.1 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Cody Bradford has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 24 games (+14.15 Units / 47% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Carson Kelly has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)