Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-170
The Houston Astros will host the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park on June 10, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Astros, currently holding a record of 36-29, have been performing well this season, while the White Sox, at 22-44, are struggling significantly. The Astros are coming off a strong performance, highlighting their competitive edge as they look to continue their winning ways.
On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Lance McCullers Jr., who has had an average season with a 4.44 ERA. While his win/loss record stands at 1-1, his 3.63 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting he could improve as the season progresses. McCullers Jr. is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs. However, his projected 4.5 hits and 2.4 walks allowed are concerning and could give the White Sox some opportunities.
The White Sox will counter with Shane Smith, who has been performing at an average level with a 2.45 ERA and a 2-3 win/loss record. Despite his solid ERA, his 4.05 xFIP suggests that he could face challenges moving forward. Smith projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but his high expected hits (5.1) and walks (1.6) could present a problem against the Astros’ offense.
The Astros’ offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB, while the White Sox are struggling at 28th. With a high implied team total of 4.57 runs for the Astros versus 3.43 for the White Sox, the projections heavily favor Houston. As the Astros look to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses, they remain a strong betting favorite at -185.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Shane Smith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing batters in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Tim Elko – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme flyball bats like Timothy Elko are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Today, Miguel Vargas is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.7% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Victor Caratini has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the futureExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.52 Units / 14% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Chase Meidroth has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 35% ROI)