Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-160
The Houston Astros welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Minute Maid Park for the first game in their series on August 2, 2024. As both teams sit close to .500, this matchup is crucial for the Astros (56-52), who are having an above-average season, while the Rays (55-53) are treading water with an average record. Currently, the Astros are positioned to take advantage of their home field and improve their standing, especially after a narrow win against the Pirates on July 31.
Yusei Kikuchi is set to take the mound for Houston. Despite a challenging season with a 4-9 record and a 4.75 ERA, Kikuchi ranks as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. His projected stats for this game indicate he could pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, making him a viable option against a struggling Rays offense that ranks 21st overall and 23rd in team batting average this season.
On the other side, Shane Baz is projected to start for Tampa Bay. With a below-average profile and a 3.66 ERA, his high walk rate (10.6 BB%) could be problematic against a disciplined Astros lineup that ranks 4th in least walks drawn. The projections favor the Astros, projecting them to score around 4.55 runs, while the Rays’ expected total hovers at a low 4.05 runs.
With the Astros boasting the 9th best offense in the league and a solid bullpen ranked 5th, they appear poised to capitalize on any mistakes from Baz, who has struggled with control. This matchup presents a significant opportunity for the Astros to gain momentum as they seek to solidify their standing in a competitive American League.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+140)The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jose Siri has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last season’s 94-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Yusei Kikuchi has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Houston Astros (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 102 games (+23.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 41 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)