Find Out the Orioles vs Rangers Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 7/20/24

Baltimore Orioles

@

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles square off in the second game of their series on July 20, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Orioles have been having a stellar season with a 59-38 record, while the Rangers are struggling at 46-51. Baltimore’s potent offense ranks 2nd in MLB and leads the league with 149 home runs, giving them a clear edge in this matchup.

Both teams will send quality right-handers to the mound. The Rangers are projected to start Max Scherzer, who boasts a strong 2.96 ERA, though his 4.03 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Scherzer has started five games this season, showing promise but also inconsistency, evidenced by his 1-2 record. The Orioles counter with Grayson Rodriguez, who has a solid 11-4 record and a 3.88 ERA over 17 starts. While both pitchers have similar projections in terms of earned runs and innings pitched, Scherzer’s tendency to allow flyballs (47% FB rate) could spell trouble against Baltimore’s home run-heavy lineup.

On the offensive side, the Rangers rank 20th in MLB, a stark contrast to the Orioles’ powerful bats. Texas does possess an average ranking in team batting average and home runs (#17 in both), but they will need to find consistency to keep up with Baltimore. The Rangers’ bullpen is ranked 13th, slightly better than the Orioles’ 17th-ranked bullpen, which might play a role if the game is close late.

The betting markets reflect a tight contest, with the Rangers’ moneyline at -105 and the Orioles’ at -115, translating to implied win probabilities of 49% and 51%, respectively. Given the Orioles’ superior offensive firepower and Scherzer’s flyball tendencies, Baltimore seems to have the edge in this matchup. However, with both teams sending capable pitchers to the mound, it promises to be an intriguing game.

With THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasting an average of 8.0 runs for this game, bettors should expect a competitive matchup. Given the Orioles’ slight edge, they might be the better play in what is expected to be a close battle.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• The Texas Rangers (21.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 85 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)