Miami Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Miami Marlins on June 8, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, with both teams looking to gain ground in their respective standings. The Rays currently sit at 34-30, performing above average this season, while the Marlins struggle at 24-38, marking a disappointing year. In their last game, the Rays delivered a strong performance, showcasing their depth and resilience.
Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for the Rays, has been a bright spot in their rotation. With a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.14, Rasmussen ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His ability to generate ground balls (51% GB rate) could serve him well against a Marlins offense that lacks power, hitting only 53 home runs this season, the 4th least in MLB.
On the other side, Connor Gillispie is expected to take the mound for Miami. His struggles this season are evident, with an 0-3 record and a troubling ERA of 8.65. The projections suggest that he may have been unlucky, but his performance against a Rays offense that ranks 16th overall could pose a challenge. The Rays have been consistent, with solid contributions from their best hitters, who have produced well recently, including a .400 batting average over the last week.
With a current moneyline of -245, the Rays are heavy favorites, and their projected team total of 5.13 runs highlights the expectation of a strong offensive showing. In contrast, the Marlins, priced at +205, have a low implied team total of 3.37 runs, reflecting the challenges they face. As both teams look to capitalize on this matchup, the Rays will aim to build on their recent success while the Marlins seek to turn their season around.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under Total BasesXavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 84.7-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under Total BasesDane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under StrikeoutsBecause flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Drew Rasmussen (47.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 5 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Connor Gillispie.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays bats have done poorly as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under Game TotalThe Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under Game TotalThe Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.90 Units / 23% ROI)