Find Out the Marlins vs Padres Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 5/26/25

Miami Marlins

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres gear up to face the Miami Marlins on May 26, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position, boasting a 29-22 record this season. The Padres are currently third in the National League West, looking to solidify their spot in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling at 21-30, sitting at the bottom of the National League East. In their last games, the Padres secured a 5-3 victory, while the Marlins managed a shutout win, 3-0, providing a glimpse of their potential despite their overall poor performance this season.

The matchup features Randy Vasquez, who is projected to start for the Padres. Although he ranks as the 285th best starting pitcher in MLB, his ERA of 3.49 suggests he’s had some luck this year. However, his 5.72 xFIP indicates that regression may be on the horizon. Vasquez has averaged 5.3 innings pitched this season, projecting to allow 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks per game could spell trouble against a Marlins lineup that, while inconsistent, has shown flashes of productivity.

On the other side, Ryan Weathers is set to take the mound for the Marlins. With a solid ERA of 1.80 in just two starts, he offers a glimmer of hope for Miami. However, his 3.16 xFIP suggests he may also be due for a dip in performance. The projections indicate that Weathers is likely to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, while giving up 5.1 hits and a concerning 1.8 walks.

The Padres’ offense ranks 15th overall, but they have the advantage of a strong bullpen, currently rated as the 3rd best in MLB. In contrast, the Marlins’ bullpen sits at 26th, which could play a crucial role in today’s game. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Padres are favored at -155, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.11 runs compared to the Marlins’ 3.39. This matchup may favor the Padres, especially with their better overall record and the sharpness of their bullpen.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Out of all SPs, Ryan Weathers’s fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+260/-370)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Randy Vasquez and his 32.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in this game matching up with 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Campusano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Luis Campusano has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)