Find Out the Braves vs Rockies Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/11/24

Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Atlanta Braves on August 11, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Rockies sit at 43-75 this season, struggling significantly, while the Braves hold a record of 61-55, showcasing an above-average campaign. This matchup is critical, especially considering yesterday’s contest, where the Braves edged the Rockies with an 11-8 victory.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Kyle Freeland, who has had a tumultuous season with a 3-4 record and an alarming 5.65 ERA. His recent outings have been less than stellar, although he did manage to strike out seven batters in a five-inning stint on August 6. The Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been a bright spot in their rotation, boasting a 4-5 record and a commendable 4.04 ERA. Schwellenbach’s performance has improved recently, highlighted by a strong seven-inning outing where he struck out ten batters.

From an offensive perspective, the Rockies rank 20th overall in MLB, but they are surprisingly 12th in batting average. Nonetheless, they are heavily reliant on their power game, sitting 10th in home runs. The Braves, meanwhile, have an average-ranked offense that still packs a punch, particularly with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge, boasting a .300 batting average and 35 home runs this season.

The projections indicate that the Rockies have an implied team total of 4.63 runs, which aligns with their recent performance. However, given the Braves’ strong offensive capabilities and their solid bullpen ranking (7th in MLB), they are likely to come out on top again in this pivotal series.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
  Travis d’Arnaud has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .322 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .333 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland will “start” for Colorado Rockies today but will server as an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86.4-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games at home (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 96 games (+23.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Sam Hilliard has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+13.00 Units / 325% ROI)