Find Out the Blue Jays vs Twins Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 9/1/24

Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins, with a record of 73-62, are enjoying an above-average season and currently sit in a strong position, while the Blue Jays are languishing at 67-71, having struggled to find consistency. In their last encounter, the Twins faced a brutal shutout loss, falling 15-0 to the Blue Jays on August 31.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Bailey Ober for the Twins and Yariel Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Ober, ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts a solid 12-6 record and an ERA of 4.06, which suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season. He projects to allow only 2.0 earned runs on average today, and while he may give up a fair number of hits (4.5), he should be able to limit damage against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in MLB in home runs.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez has had a rough season, with a 1-6 record and an ERA of 4.82. His projections indicate he could struggle, allowing 2.4 earned runs over approximately 4.4 innings, making him vulnerable against a Twins offense that ranks 9th in MLB. Notably, the Twins’ offense also ranks 7th in team batting average, showcasing their ability to produce runs effectively.

Despite the recent loss, the Twins are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -265, and projections suggest they will score around 4.77 runs in this matchup. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are projected to struggle offensively, with an estimated total of just 3.67 runs. With the Twins’ strong offensive capabilities and Ober’s favorable matchup, this game presents an opportunity for them to bounce back and secure a crucial win.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his last 3 GS, Yariel Rodriguez has seen a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2377 rpm over the entire season to 2290 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Toronto Blue Jays today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .293, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .309 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Because groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Bailey Ober and his 41.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today’s game being matched up with 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Matt Wallner has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.5-mph average to last year’s 97.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins batters as a group grade out 21st- in the game for power this year when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 away games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)