Find Out the Astros vs Angels Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 9/26/25

Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Houston Astros on September 26, 2025, at Angel Stadium, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this American League West matchup. The Angels, with a disappointing record of 71-88, have struggled throughout the season and are coming off a rough stretch. In contrast, the Astros sit at 85-74, enjoying a solid season and looking to secure their playoff position.

In their most recent game, the Astros showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively. The Angels will rely on Kyle Hendricks, a right-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season. Despite being ranked as the 218th best starting pitcher in MLB, Hendricks has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 4.01 xERA, which suggests he might improve. However, his projections for today aren’t promising, with an expected 5.2 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and a concerning 5.3 hits given up.

On the other hand, the Astros will counter with Jason Alexander, who has also had his struggles this season. Though he has a slightly better ERA of 4.83, his 4.23 xFIP indicates he could also see improvement. Alexander projects to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but he faces an Angels offense that has been the 1st most strikeout-prone in MLB, which could work in his favor.

While the Angels boast a powerful home run ranking (5th in MLB), their overall offensive performance ranks 24th, with a particularly low batting average placing them 29th. The Astros, with an average offense (15th in MLB), will look to exploit these weaknesses. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a potentially high-scoring affair.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jason Alexander is expected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup, which is the 12th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Los Angeles Angels have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has utilized his non-fastballs 5.8% less often this year (46.5%) than he did last year (52.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Logan O’Hoppe has suffered from bad luck this year. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Bryce Teodosio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Bryce Teodosio ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 101 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+14.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+16.40 Units / 164% ROI)